PITF

Political Instability Task Force

Internal Wars and Failures of Governance,
1955-2006


CONSOLIDATED STATE FAILURE EVENTS, 1955-2006:
Ethnic Wars (ETH), Revolutionary Wars (REV), Genocides and Politicides (GEN),
and Adverse Regime Changes (REG)
(note 1)

Country

Type of
Conflict

Began

Ended

Brief Description

Afghanistan

Complex
(note 2)

   4/78

  
(note 3)

In wake of unrest stemming from assassination of prominent opposition leader, Daoud regime is overthrown in left-wing military coup, followed by political purges of ruling circles and Soviet invasion (REG4 4/78-12/79). Widespread insurgency by Mujahedeen (REV 4/78-4/92) factions provokes Soviet and Afghan Government tactics of systematic terror, destruction of villages, and execution of prisoners (GEN 4/78-4/92). Soviet supported Najibullah regime falls after defection of General Dostam and his Uzbek militia. Mujahedeen forces enter Kabul and establish interim Taliban-controlled central government (REG 4/92-9/96). Civil war continues among political factions based on Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara ethnic groups, first, as Taliban attempts to extend its authority and, then, after Northern Alliance militias, backed by strong US and British air support, displace the collapsed Taliban regime in November 2001 (ETH from 5/92, REV from 5/92, REG 11/01-6/02). Mainly ethnic-Pashtun Mujahedeen and Taliban fighters continue to challenge central authorities from strongholds in south and east regions.

Albania

Complex

   5/96

   5/97

Third post‑Communist parliamentary elections are marked by bloody police repression and electoral fraud. President Berisha attempts to consolidate political power but regime is undermined by poor performance (REG 5/96). Collapse of pyramid investment schemes ignites simmering dissatisfaction. Capital and southern half of country engulfed in fighting, looting, and rioting. Tension is defused somewhat when Barisha is forced to resign and new elections are called (REV 3/97-5/97); war in neighboring Kosovo diverts attention from internal politics to external events.

Algeria

Complex

   7/62

  12/62

In wake of independence from France, Algerian militants attack Europeans and Muslim civilians who collaborated with French colonial authorities (REV 7/62-9/62, ETH 7/62-9/62, GEN 7/62-12/62).

Algeria

Complex

   5/91

  12/04

Efforts by ruling FLN (National Liberation Front) to ensure its electoral success through legislative gerrymandering trigger mass protests. Military increases its political influence in effort to prevent election of Islamicists. When Islamic Salvation Front wins elections, government cancels results (REG 1/92). Islamic militants and military-government initiate intense terror campaigns designed to undermine each other’s support bases (REV 5/91-12/04).

Angola

Complex

   1/75

   3/02

Post-independence civil war between Mbundu-dominated central government, Bakongo and Cabindan rebels, and UNITA (Union for the Total Independence of Angola), based on Ovimbundu people of south Angola (ETH 1/75-3/02, REV 1/75-3/02). Both UNITA rebels and government forces perpetrate destructive campaigns and atrocities against civilians throughout conflict (GEN 11/75-11/94). Internationally brokered peace plan leads to multi-party elections but UNITA's Savimbi rejects results and establishes rival government in Huambo (REG 5/92-4/97). 1994 Lusaka protocol ends conflict for a short time but intense fighting erupts again in late 1998. Targeting of civilian populations resumes with the break down to civil war (GEN 12/98-3/02). Death of UNITA leader, Jonas Savimbi, in February 2002 is followed by a cessation of fighting in March and the signing of a new peace agreement in August 2002.

Argentina

Regime change

   6/66

   6/66

Civilian government ousted by military coup in attempt to stem increasing influence of Peronists in electoral arena. State repression increases as urban violence escalates and falters.

Argentina

Complex

   3/76

  12/80

Domestic instability forces military regime to hold elections. Peronist victory ushers in period of political and social anarchy and military intervenes again (REG 3/76). Military declares state of siege and death squads target suspected leftists in campaign of kidnappings, torture, murder, and “disappearances” (GEN 3/76-12/80).

Armenia

Regime change

  7/95

   9/96

President Ter Petrossian suspends country’s most influential opposition party. Electoral malpractice and government intimidation tarnish subsequent legislative and presidential elections.

Azerbaijan

Complex

   8/91

   6/97

Armenian rebellion to secure independence of Nagorno-Karabakh enclave checked by 6/97 ceasefire (ETH 2/88-6/97).5 Post-Soviet democratic transition undermined by government instability, rebellion, and fraudulent presidential and legislative elections (REG 6/93-11/95).

Bangladesh

Complex

  12/74

   6/91

Floods, famine, and breakdown of law undermine parliamentary democracy. Brief experiment with strong presidential rule ends as anti-Mujib officers stage coup (REG 12/74-11/75). Separatist war waged by Shanti Bahini resists encroachments by Bengali settlers in the Chittagong Hills (ETH 8/76-6/91); fighting ends with autonomy agreement, followed by formal peace accord in November 1992.

Belarus

Regime change

   4/95

  11/96

President Lukashenko orders troops to storm parliament building and dissolves legislature. Electoral regulations prohibit legislature from convening for eight months. Once quorum is achieved, President Lukashenko restricts its action.

Benin

Regime change

  10/63

  12/65

Labor and ethnic tensions undermine fragile democracy. In attempt to quell political instability, military intervenes twice before finally abolishing democratic institutions and institutionalizing military rule.

Benin

Regime change

  10/72

  10/72

Regional rivalries force military to transfer power to civilian government. Ethnically diverse civilian coalition falls in second successful coup in three years and a Marxist-Leninist state is proclaimed.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Complex
(note 4)

   4/92

   12/95

The breakup of the Yugoslav Federation leads to ethnonational conflict among Serb, Croat, and Muslim inhabitants of Bosnia and Herzegovina and failure of central authority (ETH 4/92-11/95, REG 4/92-12/95). Muslim residents of Bosnia are subject to “ethnic cleansing” measures including destruction of property, forced resettlement, and execution mainly by Serb and some Croat forces (GEN 5/92-11/95). Dayton peace accord ends fighting after country has been de facto partitioned along ethnic lines; central government is established under international supervision.

Brazil

Regime change

   9/61

  10/65

Inflation and radical reforms proposed by new President Joao Goulart trigger overthrow of a weakly institutionalized democratic government by the armed forces. Bureaucratic-authoritarian regime forcefully represses left-wing opposition.

Burkina Faso

Regime change

  11/80

  11/80

Leader of former military regime, President Lamizana, elected as head of civilian government. Subsequent economic crisis and labor unrest triggers military coup and suspension of Constitution.

Burma (Myanmar)

Complex

   8/61

  

Karen, Kachin, Shan, Mon, Chin, and other non-Burman peoples fight for greater regional autonomy (ETH from 8/61). In 1962 political factionalism within ruling party and regional ethnic rebellions undermine democratic institutions and trigger military intervention. Military rule institutionalized in one-party socialist state (REG 3/62-7/62, GEN 1/78-12/78). In 1988 students in Rangoon organize increasingly violent protests against military rule and make an unsuccessful attempt to form revolutionary coalition with ethnic rebels (REV 3/88-6/89).

Burundi

Complex

   6/63

  12/73

Unstable political alliance between Tutsis and Hutus produces democratic stalemate. King increases his authority but is unable to resolve ethnic tensions and is overthrown by the Tutsi-dominated military (REG 6/63-11/ 66). Attempted coup by Hutu units in 1965 results in massacres of Tutsis in countryside, prompting Army to eliminate Hutu leaders, and in 1972 Hutus insurgents launch a coordinated attack against government authorities in the south and east (ETH 4/72-7/72).  Challenges to Tutsi-dominated government by ethnic-Hutus results in ethnic massacres (GEN 10/65-12/73).

Burundi

Complex

   8/88

   5/05

Attempted democratic reforms prompt violence between historically dominant Tutsis and Hutu challengers (ETH 8/88-5/05). As result of rural violence against local Tutsi officials, Tutsi-dominated army conducts unpremeditated massacres of Hutus (GEN 8/88). In 1993, Hutu opposition forces win first multi-party presidential and legislative elections, provoking disaffected Tutsi military forces to revolt and assassinate the Hutu president (REG 10/93-7/96). Subsequent armed clashes and massacres occur in three waves: Tutsi soldiers against Hutu civilians, Hutus against Tutsis, and Tutsi against Hutus (GEN 10/93-12/93).

Cambodia

Complex

   3/70

   5/91

Khmer Rouge insurgents, supported by North Vietnam, battle royalist government forces (REV 3/70-4/75). Once in power they initiate restructuring of society and central authority leading to massive deaths by starvation, deprivation, executions, and massacres of old regime supporters, city dwellers, and tribal peoples, particularly Muslim Chams (REG 4/75-3/76; GEN 4/75-1/79). Vietnamese forces invade Cambodia in December 1978, drive out the Khmer Rouge, and install a new government. Khmer Rouge continues armed resistance, eventually joining forces with other opposition groups (REV 1/79-5/91). Resistance continues until a cease-fire is brokered in May 1991, followed by a peace settlement in October 1991.  

Cambodia

Regime change

   7/97

   7/97

Hun Sen ousts coalition partner and ends fractious coalition government installed following UN-supervised elections in 1993.  Hun Sen consolidates power in a new coalition.

Central African Republic

Regime Change

  3/03

 

Following his dismissal as commander, troops loyal to Gen. Bozize mount challenge to elected government of President Patasse. Gen. Bozize succeeds in seizing power in March 2003 while Patasse is out of the country (REG 3/03). Supporters of ousted President Patasse in the north face retribution from the Bozize regime which draws its support from southerners. Open rebellion breaks out in the northwest in June 2005 and, then, in October 2006 in the northeast (ETH from 6/05).

Chad

Complex

  10/65

  10/94

Recurring civil war among Chad's many communal groups with shifting alliances, but mainly along north-south lines (ETH 10/65-10/94). Failed attempt at national unification in 1978 leads to collapse of governance, intensified conflict, and international intervention (REG 2/79-6/84).

Chad Ethnic War   10/05   Dominance of the central government by President Déby's clan and ethnic-Zaghawa supporters led to a mutiny by elements of the army in October 2005, a coup attempt in March 2006, and an attack on the capital in April 2006 (ETH from 10/05). Failing to unseat the government, FUC rebel forces took refuge in border regions with Sudan and Central African Republic. A peace agreement with the rebels was reached in December 2006 and fighting largely ended in January 2007. The FUC leader, Capt. Nour Abdelkerim, was appointed Minister of Homeland Defense in March 2007.

Chile

Complex

   9/73

  12/76

President Allende's democratically elected socialist government is overthrown in military coup. General Pinochet consolidates power, dissolves Congress, and suppresses left and center opposition (REG 9/73). Sup porters of former regime and other leftists are arrested, tortured, disappeared, exiled, and summarily executed (GEN 9/73-12/76).

China

Complex

   2/56

  12/59

Armed resistance to Chinese occupation of Tibet breaks out in February 1956 and spreads throughout the region. Rebellion is suppressed by Chinese forces by April 1959 (ETH 2/56-4/59). In 1959, Army and security forces suppress counterrevolutionary elements of society, including Tibetan Buddhists, landowners, and supporters of former Chiang Kaishek regime (GEN 3/59-12/59).

China

Complex

   5/66

   3/75

In 1966, Red Guard youth gangs under loose direction of a Party faction target a wide spectrum of society for arrest, harassment, reeducation, torture, and execution (GEN 5/66-3/75). Red Army wars with Red Guards in an attempt to control the Cultural Revolution (REV 8/66-7/69).

China

Complex

   7/88

  12/98

Episodic violent protests by Uighurs in Xinjiang Province against Han Chinese control escalate by 1996 into terror campaign; government repression ends open opposition (ETH 7/88-12/98). In 1989 students occupy Tiananmen Square demanding democratic reforms; government violently suppresses them and their supporters (REV 4/89-6/89).

Colombia

Revolutionary War

   4/48

  12/60

A protracted civil war breaks out between the Conservative and Liberal parties vying for state power. The period known as “la violencia” begins in earnest with riots in Bogota following the assassination of Liberal leader Gaitan in April 1948. The violence begins to decrease with the election of a moderate Liberal-Conservative coalition, the National Front, in 1958 and continues to diminish through 1960.

Colombia

Revolutionary War

   5/84

  

Diverse left-wing groups, some of them in alliance with drug barons, battle government forces and right-wing paramilitary organizations in rural areas.

Comoros

Regime change

   1/76

   1/76

Twenty-eight days after the declaration of independence a coalition of six political parties known as the United National Front ousts the Abdallah government. Democratic governance ends with the designation of Ali Soilih as head of state.

Comoros

Complex

   9/95

   4/99

Foreign-led mercenaries and disaffected Comorian troops overthrow elected government of President Djohar. French troops sent to the island one week later arrest mercenaries, reinstall elected prime minister, and arrest Djohar (REG 9/95-3/96). Army Chief of Staff, Col. Assoumani Azzali, leads April 30, 1999 coup that dissolves constitution and government; promised transition to new elections based on Antananarivo agreement do not materialize (REG 4/99).

Congo-Brazzaville

Regime change

  12/63

  12/63

Fragile democracy weakened by ethnic and labor tensions. Military forces President Youlou to resign. Interim government established prior to popular approval of new constitution that creates one-party Marxist-Leninist state.

Congo-Brazzaville

Complex

   6/97

  12/99

Civil war erupts amid pre-election tensions when President Lissouba’s army attacks the residence of former dictator Sassou-Nguesso. Rebels, backed by Angolan troops, take Brazzaville by force; fighting continues through September 1999. Pointe Noire Peace Agreement ends fighting in December 1999 (REV 6/97-12/99).  Transition to democracy ends when Sassou-Nguesso rallies supporters, backed by Angolan Troops, and ousts Lissouba (REG 10/97).

Congo-Kinshasa

Complex

   6/60

  11/65

Independence is followed by intense political and tribal factionalism and the emergence of secessionist movements. Failed attempt at democracy ends in establishment of military dictatorship under General Mobutu (REG 6/60-11/65). Mutiny within ranks of military escalates into full-scale civil war. Rebels expel remnants of Belgian colonial apparatus (REV 7/60-8/65). Katanga and South Kasai secede from newly independent Congo (1960) followed by secession of Orientale and Kivu (1961) and rebellions in Stanleyville and Kwilu (1964) (ETH 7/60-11/65). To consolidate control, rebels massacre counter-revolutionaries, including educated Congolese, missionaries, and other Europeans (GEN 2/64-1/65).

Congo-Kinshasa

Complex

   3/77

  12/79

Independence movement of Lunda/Yeke (FNLC--Zaire National Liberation Front) invades Shaba (Katanga) Province, their traditional homeland (ETH 3/77-5/78). Episodic rebellions and agitation are countered by killings of political opponents, dissident tribesmen, and prisoners (GEN 3/77-12/79)

Congo-Kinshasa

Complex

   3/92

  

Communal violence erupts in Shaba (Katanga) between Luba-Kasai minority and dominant Lunda; regional governments become more autonomous (ETH from 3/92). In reaction to absolute power wielded by Mobutu's military-backed government, pro-democracy opposition pressures him to appoint new prime minister and government (REG 12/92-7/03). Tutsis residing in eastern Zaire form core of rebel army that, with substantial help from Rwanda, defeats government troops and ousts Mobutu's regime (REV 10/96-7/03). Disaffection with the policies of the nascent Kabila regime leads to the polarization of ethnic-militias, failure of central authority, and the widening of the conflict to include armed forces from regional states. Power-sharing agreement reestablishes central authority in July 2003 and integrates key militias in the central army but sporadic, ethnic armed conflict continues in outlying regions, especially the north and east.

Croatia

Ethnic war5

   6/91

  12/95

Serbs in eastern Croatia and Krajina fight newly independent Croat government for autonomy, fighting checked in 1992 by UN peacekeeping force.

Cuba

Complex

   3/52

  12/61

Fulgencio Batista, supported by the military, stages a successful coup that ousts President Carlos Prio Socarras just before scheduled general elections (REG 3/52-6/55). Rural-based insurgents led by Fidel Castro overthrow military-backed Batista regime (REV 12/56-1/59). Single-party socialist state established by 1961 (REG 1/59-12/61).

Cyprus

Complex

  12/63

   4/68

Constitutional amendment proposed by President Makarios is unacceptable to Turkish-Cypriots and the democratic coalition of Greek and Turkish parties collapses, leading to intense communal fighting, de facto separation by ethnic-Turks in the north, and intervention by UN peacekeepers (ETH 12/63-4/64; REG 12/63-4/68).

Cyprus

Complex

   7/74

   8/74

Coup by ethnic-Greek nationalists triggers communal fighting and intervention by armed forces from Turkey. Democracy restored in southern half of island while Turkish Cypriots establish de facto government in north (REG 7/74-8/74; ETH 7/74).

Czechoslovakia

Regime change

   8/68

   7/69

Communist reformers lead popular movement for political and economic liberalization known as “Prague Spring.” Hardliners, supported by Soviet troops, crush reform movement and reinstall hard-line government.

Dominican Republic

Complex

   9/63

   7/66

President Trujillo, de facto ruler since 1930, is assassinated. Military overthrows newly elected democratic government, establishes junta, and restricts leftwing parties (REG 9/63-7/66). Insurrection by supporters of the deposed president results in external intervention in support of Wessin regime (REV 4/65-5/65).

Ecuador

Regime change

   6/70

   2/72

President Velasco suspends Constitution, dissolves legislature, and assumes dictatorial powers to cope with financial emergency. Military deposes Velasco's authoritarian-democratic regime.

Egypt

Revolutionary War

   2/92

   3/99

Terror campaign by militant Islamic groups against secular government; largely suppressed by mid-1996. Widespread arrests of activists result in March 1999 renunciation of violence by the Gamaat-I-Islamiya (Egypt’s largest resistance group).

El Salvador

Complex

   2/77

   1/92

Amid widespread labor unrest, unprecedented levels of military intimidation and voter fraud characterize presidential elections. President Romero ushers in era of increased political repression (REG 2/77). Leftwing FMLN (Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front) insurgency ensues (REV 10/79-1/92). In face of widespread insurgency, military, security units, and death squads harass, imprison, and kill leftists among clergy, peasants, urban workers, and intellectuals (GEN 1/80-12/89).

Equatorial Guinea

Complex

   2/69

   8/79

Following elections that brought President Macias to power in the newly independent, former Spanish colony, a crisis arose in February 1969 when the new president demanded that Spain abandon its control over the domestic economy. A state of emergency was declared on March 1. A failed coup followed on March 4. President Macias used the crisis to consolidate his power and eliminate opposition leaders, ethnic-Bubi separatists, and potential rivals (REG 2/69-3/69; GEN 3/69-8/79). Macias' reign of terror ended with a successful coup in August 1979 led by his nephew Obiang, who became chief executive.

Ethiopia

Complex

   7/61

   5/93

Eritrean secessionists led by ELF (Eritrean Liberation Front) and EPLF (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front), joined by Afars, Oromos, and others in mid 1970s, fight civil wars for independence from successive imperial and Marxist regimes in Addis Ababa (ETH 7/61-5/91). Ethnic-Somalis in Ogaden rebel twice (ETH 10/63-4/64; ETH 2/77-5/78). In 1974, Emperor Selassie is deposed by left-wing military government and the Derg establishes repressive one-party socialist state (REG 9/74-3/75). Army, internal security units, and civilian defense squads massacre political and military elites, workers, students, bureaucrats, and others thought to oppose the revolutionary regime (GEN 7/76-12/79). In 1975 Tigrean Liberation Front joins regional separatists in war to seize control of the central government (REV 7/75-5/91). Eritrean-Tigrean coalition movement defeats military-backed Derg government in May 1991; transitional government accepts Eritrean independence in May 1993 (REG 5/91-5/93).

Ethiopia

Ethnic war

   2/99

   6/00

Border war with Eritrea provides opportunities for multiple Oromo ethnic factions, including the Oromo Liberation Front, the United Oromo Peoples Liberation Front (or Tokuchuma), the Al Ittihad, and the Islamic Oromo Liberation Front, to challenge Ethiopian government. Fighting escalates in February 1999 and again in May 1999 as Oromo factions gain support from Eritrea channeled through the Aideed faction in Somalia. Rebellion diminishes with the June 2000 cease-fire between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Fiji

Regime change

  12/87

  12/87

Parliamentary elections in 1987 bring ethnic-Indian party to power. Elected government is ousted by a military coup led by Lt. Col. Sitiveni Rabuka on May 21, 1987.

Fiji

Regime change

  12/06

  12/06

The ethnic Fijian-dominated Qarase government is ousted by a military coup led by Commodore Frank Bainimarama on December 5, 2006. Bainimarama, an ethnic Fijian, claimed to oppose the racially biased policies of the Qarase government and its decision to offer clemency to those individuals behind the 2000 coup and subsequent attacks against the country's Indo-Fijian population. The 2000 coup attempt had been put down by forces loyal to Bainimarama.

France

Regime change

   6/58

   6/58

New constitution institutes the (Gaulist) Fifth Republic, a very strong Presidential system that grants extraordinary powers to the president over parliament.

The Gambia

Regime change

   7/94

   7/94

Longstanding multiparty system, dominated by President Dawda, is overthrown in military coup. Military rule reaffirmed with controversial elections of 1996.

Georgia

Complex

   6/91

  12/93

Abkhaz and South Ossetian regional governments fight for independence with backing from Russian military and political elements, effective autonomy secured in both regions by 1993 (ETH 6