CONSOLIDATED STATE FAILURE EVENTS, 1955-2006:
Ethnic Wars (ETH), Revolutionary Wars (REV), Genocides and Politicides
(GEN),
and Adverse Regime Changes (REG) (note 1)
|
|
Country
|
Type of
Conflict
|
Began
|
Ended
|
Brief Description
|
|
Afghanistan
|
Complex
(note 2)
|
4/78
|
—
(note 3)
|
In wake of unrest stemming from assassination
of prominent opposition leader, Daoud regime is overthrown in
left-wing military coup, followed by political purges of ruling
circles and Soviet invasion (REG4 4/78-12/79). Widespread insurgency
by Mujahedeen (REV 4/78-4/92) factions provokes Soviet and Afghan
Government tactics of systematic terror, destruction of villages,
and execution of prisoners (GEN 4/78-4/92). Soviet supported Najibullah
regime falls after defection of General Dostam and his Uzbek militia.
Mujahedeen forces enter Kabul and establish interim Taliban-controlled
central government (REG 4/92-9/96). Civil war continues among
political factions based on Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara
ethnic groups, first, as Taliban attempts to extend its authority
and, then, after Northern Alliance militias, backed by strong
US and British air support, displace the collapsed Taliban regime
in November 2001 (ETH from 5/92, REV from 5/92, REG 11/01-6/02).
Mainly ethnic-Pashtun Mujahedeen and Taliban fighters continue
to challenge central authorities from strongholds in south and
east regions.
|
|
Albania
|
Complex
|
5/96
|
5/97
|
Third post‑Communist parliamentary elections
are marked by bloody police repression and electoral fraud. President
Berisha attempts to consolidate political power but regime is
undermined by poor performance (REG 5/96). Collapse of pyramid
investment schemes ignites simmering dissatisfaction. Capital
and southern half of country engulfed in fighting, looting, and
rioting. Tension is defused somewhat when Barisha is forced to
resign and new elections are called (REV 3/97-5/97); war in neighboring
Kosovo diverts attention from internal politics to external events.
|
|
Algeria
|
Complex
|
7/62
|
12/62
|
In wake of independence from France, Algerian
militants attack Europeans and Muslim civilians who collaborated
with French colonial authorities (REV 7/62-9/62, ETH 7/62-9/62,
GEN 7/62-12/62).
|
|
Algeria
|
Complex
|
5/91
|
12/04
|
Efforts by ruling FLN (National Liberation
Front) to ensure its electoral success through legislative gerrymandering
trigger mass protests. Military increases its political influence
in effort to prevent election of Islamicists. When Islamic Salvation
Front wins elections, government cancels results (REG 1/92). Islamic
militants and military-government initiate intense terror campaigns
designed to undermine each other’s support bases (REV 5/91-12/04).
|
|
Angola
|
Complex
|
1/75
|
3/02
|
Post-independence civil war between Mbundu-dominated
central government, Bakongo and Cabindan rebels, and UNITA (Union
for the Total Independence of Angola), based on Ovimbundu people
of south Angola (ETH 1/75-3/02, REV 1/75-3/02). Both UNITA rebels
and government forces perpetrate destructive campaigns and atrocities
against civilians throughout conflict (GEN 11/75-11/94). Internationally
brokered peace plan leads to multi-party elections but UNITA's
Savimbi rejects results and establishes rival government in Huambo
(REG 5/92-4/97). 1994 Lusaka protocol ends conflict for a short
time but intense fighting erupts again in late 1998. Targeting
of civilian populations resumes with the break down to civil war
(GEN 12/98-3/02). Death of UNITA leader, Jonas Savimbi, in February
2002 is followed by a cessation of fighting in March and the signing
of a new peace agreement in August 2002.
|
|
Argentina
|
Regime change
|
6/66
|
6/66
|
Civilian government ousted by military coup
in attempt to stem increasing influence of Peronists in electoral
arena. State repression increases as urban violence escalates
and falters.
|
|
Argentina
|
Complex
|
3/76
|
12/80
|
Domestic instability forces military regime
to hold elections. Peronist victory ushers in period of political
and social anarchy and military intervenes again (REG 3/76). Military
declares state of siege and death squads target suspected leftists
in campaign of kidnappings, torture, murder, and “disappearances”
(GEN 3/76-12/80).
|
|
Armenia
|
Regime change
|
7/95
|
9/96
|
President Ter Petrossian suspends country’s
most influential opposition party. Electoral malpractice and government
intimidation tarnish subsequent legislative and presidential elections.
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
Complex
|
8/91
|
6/97
|
Armenian rebellion to secure independence of
Nagorno-Karabakh enclave checked by 6/97 ceasefire (ETH 2/88-6/97).5
Post-Soviet democratic transition undermined by government
instability, rebellion, and fraudulent presidential and legislative
elections (REG 6/93-11/95).
|
|
Bangladesh
|
Complex
|
12/74
|
6/91
|
Floods, famine, and breakdown of law undermine
parliamentary democracy. Brief experiment with strong presidential
rule ends as anti-Mujib officers stage coup (REG 12/74-11/75).
Separatist war waged by Shanti Bahini resists encroachments by
Bengali settlers in the Chittagong Hills (ETH 8/76-6/91); fighting
ends with autonomy agreement, followed by formal peace accord
in November 1992.
|
|
Belarus
|
Regime change
|
4/95
|
11/96
|
President Lukashenko orders troops to storm
parliament building and dissolves legislature. Electoral regulations
prohibit legislature from convening for eight months. Once quorum
is achieved, President Lukashenko restricts its action.
|
|
Benin
|
Regime change
|
10/63
|
12/65
|
Labor and ethnic tensions undermine fragile
democracy. In attempt to quell political instability, military
intervenes twice before finally abolishing democratic institutions
and institutionalizing military rule.
|
|
Benin
|
Regime change
|
10/72
|
10/72
|
Regional rivalries force military to transfer
power to civilian government. Ethnically diverse civilian coalition
falls in second successful coup in three years and a Marxist-Leninist
state is proclaimed.
|
|
Bosnia and Herzegovina
|
Complex
(note 4)
|
4/92
|
12/95
|
The breakup of the Yugoslav Federation leads
to ethnonational conflict among Serb, Croat, and Muslim inhabitants
of Bosnia and Herzegovina and failure of central authority (ETH
4/92-11/95, REG 4/92-12/95). Muslim residents of Bosnia are subject
to “ethnic cleansing” measures including destruction of property,
forced resettlement, and execution mainly by Serb and some Croat
forces (GEN 5/92-11/95). Dayton peace accord ends fighting after
country has been de facto partitioned along ethnic lines; central
government is established under international supervision.
|
|
Brazil
|
Regime change
|
9/61
|
10/65
|
Inflation and radical reforms proposed by new
President Joao Goulart trigger overthrow of a weakly institutionalized
democratic government by the armed forces. Bureaucratic-authoritarian
regime forcefully represses left-wing opposition.
|
|
Burkina Faso
|
Regime change
|
11/80
|
11/80
|
Leader of former military regime, President
Lamizana, elected as head of civilian government. Subsequent economic
crisis and labor unrest triggers military coup and suspension
of Constitution.
|
|
Burma (Myanmar)
|
Complex
|
8/61
|
—
|
Karen, Kachin, Shan, Mon, Chin, and other non-Burman
peoples fight for greater regional autonomy (ETH from 8/61). In
1962 political factionalism within ruling party and regional ethnic
rebellions undermine democratic institutions and trigger military
intervention. Military rule institutionalized in one-party socialist
state (REG 3/62-7/62, GEN 1/78-12/78). In 1988 students in Rangoon
organize increasingly violent protests against military rule and
make an unsuccessful attempt to form revolutionary coalition with
ethnic rebels (REV 3/88-6/89).
|
|
Burundi
|
Complex
|
6/63
|
12/73
|
Unstable political alliance between Tutsis
and Hutus produces democratic stalemate. King increases his authority
but is unable to resolve ethnic tensions and is overthrown by
the Tutsi-dominated military (REG 6/63-11/ 66). Attempted coup
by Hutu units in 1965 results in massacres of Tutsis in countryside,
prompting Army to eliminate Hutu leaders, and in 1972 Hutus insurgents
launch a coordinated attack against government authorities in
the south and east (ETH 4/72-7/72). Challenges to Tutsi-dominated government by
ethnic-Hutus results in ethnic massacres (GEN 10/65-12/73).
|
|
Burundi
|
Complex
|
8/88
|
5/05
|
Attempted democratic reforms prompt violence
between historically dominant Tutsis and Hutu challengers (ETH
8/88-5/05). As result of rural violence against local Tutsi officials,
Tutsi-dominated army conducts unpremeditated massacres of Hutus
(GEN 8/88). In 1993, Hutu opposition forces win first multi-party
presidential and legislative elections, provoking disaffected
Tutsi military forces to revolt and assassinate the Hutu president
(REG 10/93-7/96). Subsequent armed clashes and massacres occur
in three waves: Tutsi soldiers against Hutu civilians, Hutus against
Tutsis, and Tutsi against Hutus (GEN 10/93-12/93).
|
|
Cambodia
|
Complex
|
3/70
|
5/91
|
Khmer Rouge insurgents, supported by North
Vietnam, battle royalist government forces (REV 3/70-4/75). Once
in power they initiate restructuring of society and central authority
leading to massive deaths by starvation, deprivation, executions,
and massacres of old regime supporters, city dwellers, and tribal
peoples, particularly Muslim Chams (REG 4/75-3/76; GEN 4/75-1/79).
Vietnamese forces invade Cambodia in December 1978, drive out
the Khmer Rouge, and install a new government. Khmer Rouge continues
armed resistance, eventually joining forces with other opposition
groups (REV 1/79-5/91). Resistance continues until a cease-fire
is brokered in May 1991, followed by a peace settlement in October
1991.
|
|
Cambodia
|
Regime change
|
7/97
|
7/97
|
Hun Sen ousts coalition partner and ends fractious
coalition government installed following UN-supervised elections
in 1993. Hun Sen consolidates
power in a new coalition.
|
|
Central African Republic
|
Regime Change
|
3/03
|
—
|
Following his dismissal as commander,
troops loyal to Gen. Bozize mount challenge to elected government
of President Patasse. Gen. Bozize succeeds in seizing power in
March 2003 while Patasse is out of the country (REG 3/03). Supporters
of ousted President Patasse in the north face retribution from
the Bozize regime which draws its support from southerners. Open
rebellion breaks out in the northwest in June 2005 and, then,
in October 2006 in the northeast (ETH from 6/05).
|
|
Chad
|
Complex
|
10/65
|
10/94
|
Recurring civil war among Chad's many communal
groups with shifting alliances, but mainly along north-south lines
(ETH 10/65-10/94). Failed attempt at national unification in 1978
leads to collapse of governance, intensified conflict, and international
intervention (REG 2/79-6/84).
|
| Chad |
Ethnic War |
10/05 |
— |
Dominance of the central government by President
Déby's clan and ethnic-Zaghawa supporters led to a mutiny
by elements of the army in October 2005, a coup attempt in March
2006, and an attack on the capital in April 2006 (ETH from 10/05).
Failing to unseat the government, FUC rebel forces took refuge in
border regions with Sudan and Central African Republic. A peace
agreement with the rebels was reached in December 2006 and fighting
largely ended in January 2007. The FUC leader, Capt. Nour Abdelkerim,
was appointed Minister of Homeland Defense in March 2007. |
|
Chile
|
Complex
|
9/73
|
12/76
|
President Allende's democratically elected
socialist government is overthrown in military coup. General Pinochet
consolidates power, dissolves Congress, and suppresses left and
center opposition (REG 9/73). Sup porters of former regime and
other leftists are arrested, tortured, disappeared, exiled, and
summarily executed (GEN 9/73-12/76).
|
|
China
|
Complex
|
2/56
|
12/59
|
Armed resistance to Chinese occupation of Tibet
breaks out in February 1956 and spreads throughout the region.
Rebellion is suppressed by Chinese forces by April 1959 (ETH 2/56-4/59).
In 1959, Army and security forces suppress counterrevolutionary
elements of society, including Tibetan Buddhists, landowners,
and supporters of former Chiang Kaishek regime (GEN 3/59-12/59).
|
|
China
|
Complex
|
5/66
|
3/75
|
In 1966, Red Guard youth gangs under loose
direction of a Party faction target a wide spectrum of society
for arrest, harassment, reeducation, torture, and execution (GEN
5/66-3/75). Red Army wars with Red Guards in an attempt to control
the Cultural Revolution (REV 8/66-7/69).
|
|
China
|
Complex
|
7/88
|
12/98
|
Episodic violent protests by Uighurs in Xinjiang
Province against Han Chinese control escalate by 1996 into terror
campaign; government repression ends open opposition (ETH 7/88-12/98).
In 1989 students occupy Tiananmen Square demanding democratic
reforms; government violently suppresses them and their supporters
(REV 4/89-6/89).
|
|
Colombia
|
Revolutionary War
|
4/48
|
12/60
|
A protracted civil war breaks out between the
Conservative and Liberal parties vying for state power. The period
known as “la violencia” begins in earnest with riots in Bogota
following the assassination of Liberal leader Gaitan in April
1948. The violence begins to decrease with the election of a moderate
Liberal-Conservative coalition, the National Front, in 1958 and
continues to diminish through 1960.
|
|
Colombia
|
Revolutionary War
|
5/84
|
—
|
Diverse left-wing groups, some of them in alliance
with drug barons, battle government forces and right-wing paramilitary
organizations in rural areas.
|
|
Comoros
|
Regime change
|
1/76
|
1/76
|
Twenty-eight days after the declaration of
independence a coalition of six political parties known as the
United National Front ousts the Abdallah government. Democratic
governance ends with the designation of Ali Soilih as head of
state.
|
|
Comoros
|
Complex
|
9/95
|
4/99
|
Foreign-led mercenaries and disaffected Comorian
troops overthrow elected government of President Djohar. French
troops sent to the island one week later arrest mercenaries, reinstall
elected prime minister, and arrest Djohar (REG 9/95-3/96). Army
Chief of Staff, Col. Assoumani Azzali, leads April 30, 1999 coup
that dissolves constitution and government; promised transition
to new elections based on Antananarivo agreement do not materialize
(REG 4/99).
|
|
Congo-Brazzaville
|
Regime change
|
12/63
|
12/63
|
Fragile democracy weakened by ethnic and labor
tensions. Military forces President Youlou to resign. Interim
government established prior to popular approval of new constitution
that creates one-party Marxist-Leninist state.
|
|
Congo-Brazzaville
|
Complex
|
6/97
|
12/99
|
Civil war erupts amid pre-election tensions
when President Lissouba’s army attacks the residence of former
dictator Sassou-Nguesso. Rebels, backed by Angolan troops, take
Brazzaville by force; fighting continues through September 1999.
Pointe Noire Peace Agreement ends fighting in December 1999 (REV
6/97-12/99). Transition
to democracy ends when Sassou-Nguesso rallies supporters, backed
by Angolan Troops, and ousts Lissouba (REG 10/97).
|
|
Congo-Kinshasa
|
Complex
|
6/60
|
11/65
|
Independence is followed by intense political
and tribal factionalism and the emergence of secessionist movements.
Failed attempt at democracy ends in establishment of military
dictatorship under General Mobutu (REG 6/60-11/65). Mutiny within
ranks of military escalates into full-scale civil war. Rebels
expel remnants of Belgian colonial apparatus (REV 7/60-8/65).
Katanga and South Kasai secede from newly independent Congo (1960)
followed by secession of Orientale and Kivu (1961) and rebellions
in Stanleyville and Kwilu (1964) (ETH 7/60-11/65). To consolidate
control, rebels massacre counter-revolutionaries, including educated
Congolese, missionaries, and other Europeans (GEN 2/64-1/65).
|
|
Congo-Kinshasa
|
Complex
|
3/77
|
12/79
|
Independence movement of Lunda/Yeke (FNLC--Zaire
National Liberation Front) invades Shaba (Katanga) Province, their
traditional homeland (ETH 3/77-5/78). Episodic rebellions and
agitation are countered by killings of political opponents, dissident
tribesmen, and prisoners (GEN 3/77-12/79)
|
|
Congo-Kinshasa
|
Complex
|
3/92
|
—
|
Communal violence erupts in Shaba (Katanga)
between Luba-Kasai minority and dominant Lunda; regional governments
become more autonomous (ETH from 3/92). In reaction to absolute
power wielded by Mobutu's military-backed government, pro-democracy
opposition pressures him to appoint new prime minister and government
(REG 12/92-7/03). Tutsis residing in eastern Zaire form core of
rebel army that, with substantial help from Rwanda, defeats government
troops and ousts Mobutu's regime (REV 10/96-7/03). Disaffection
with the policies of the nascent Kabila regime leads to the polarization
of ethnic-militias, failure of central authority, and the widening
of the conflict to include armed forces from regional states.
Power-sharing agreement reestablishes central authority in July
2003 and integrates key militias in the central army but sporadic,
ethnic armed conflict continues in outlying regions, especially
the north and east.
|
|
Croatia
|
Ethnic war5
|
6/91
|
12/95
|
Serbs in eastern Croatia and Krajina fight
newly independent Croat government for autonomy, fighting checked
in 1992 by UN peacekeeping force.
|
|
Cuba
|
Complex
|
3/52
|
12/61
|
Fulgencio Batista, supported by the military,
stages a successful coup that ousts President Carlos Prio Socarras
just before scheduled general elections (REG 3/52-6/55). Rural-based
insurgents led by Fidel Castro overthrow military-backed Batista
regime (REV 12/56-1/59). Single-party socialist state established
by 1961 (REG 1/59-12/61).
|
|
Cyprus
|
Complex
|
12/63
|
4/68
|
Constitutional amendment proposed by President
Makarios is unacceptable to Turkish-Cypriots and the democratic
coalition of Greek and Turkish parties collapses, leading to intense
communal fighting, de facto separation by ethnic-Turks in the
north, and intervention by UN peacekeepers (ETH 12/63-4/64; REG
12/63-4/68).
|
|
Cyprus
|
Complex
|
7/74
|
8/74
|
Coup by ethnic-Greek nationalists triggers
communal fighting and intervention by armed forces from Turkey.
Democracy restored in southern half of island while Turkish Cypriots
establish de facto government in north (REG 7/74-8/74; ETH 7/74).
|
|
Czechoslovakia
|
Regime change
|
8/68
|
7/69
|
Communist reformers lead popular movement for
political and economic liberalization known as “Prague Spring.”
Hardliners, supported by Soviet troops, crush reform movement
and reinstall hard-line government.
|
|
Dominican Republic
|
Complex
|
9/63
|
7/66
|
President Trujillo, de facto ruler since 1930,
is assassinated. Military overthrows newly elected democratic
government, establishes junta, and restricts leftwing parties
(REG 9/63-7/66). Insurrection by supporters of the deposed president
results in external intervention in support of Wessin regime (REV
4/65-5/65).
|
|
Ecuador
|
Regime change
|
6/70
|
2/72
|
President Velasco suspends Constitution, dissolves
legislature, and assumes dictatorial powers to cope with financial
emergency. Military deposes Velasco's authoritarian-democratic
regime.
|
|
Egypt
|
Revolutionary War
|
2/92
|
3/99
|
Terror campaign by militant Islamic groups
against secular government; largely suppressed by mid-1996. Widespread
arrests of activists result in March 1999 renunciation of violence
by the Gamaat-I-Islamiya (Egypt’s largest resistance group).
|
|
El Salvador
|
Complex
|
2/77
|
1/92
|
Amid widespread labor unrest, unprecedented
levels of military intimidation and voter fraud characterize presidential
elections. President Romero ushers in era of increased political
repression (REG 2/77). Leftwing FMLN (Farabundo Marti National
Liberation Front) insurgency ensues (REV 10/79-1/92). In face
of widespread insurgency, military, security units, and death
squads harass, imprison, and kill leftists among clergy, peasants,
urban workers, and intellectuals (GEN 1/80-12/89).
|
|
Equatorial Guinea
|
Complex
|
2/69
|
8/79
|
Following elections that brought President
Macias to power in the newly independent, former Spanish colony,
a crisis arose in February 1969 when the new president demanded
that Spain abandon its control over the domestic economy. A state
of emergency was declared on March 1. A failed coup followed on
March 4. President Macias used the crisis to consolidate his power
and eliminate opposition leaders, ethnic-Bubi separatists, and
potential rivals (REG 2/69-3/69; GEN 3/69-8/79). Macias' reign
of terror ended with a successful coup in August 1979 led by his
nephew Obiang, who became chief executive.
|
|
Ethiopia
|
Complex
|
7/61
|
5/93
|
Eritrean secessionists led by ELF (Eritrean
Liberation Front) and EPLF (Eritrean People’s Liberation Front),
joined by Afars, Oromos, and others in mid 1970s, fight civil
wars for independence from successive imperial and Marxist regimes
in Addis Ababa (ETH 7/61-5/91). Ethnic-Somalis in Ogaden rebel
twice (ETH 10/63-4/64; ETH 2/77-5/78). In 1974, Emperor Selassie
is deposed by left-wing military government and the Derg establishes
repressive one-party socialist state (REG 9/74-3/75). Army, internal
security units, and civilian defense squads massacre political
and military elites, workers, students, bureaucrats, and others
thought to oppose the revolutionary regime (GEN 7/76-12/79). In
1975 Tigrean Liberation Front joins regional separatists in war
to seize control of the central government (REV 7/75-5/91). Eritrean-Tigrean
coalition movement defeats military-backed Derg government in
May 1991; transitional government accepts Eritrean independence
in May 1993 (REG 5/91-5/93).
|
|
Ethiopia
|
Ethnic war
|
2/99
|
6/00
|
Border war with Eritrea provides opportunities
for multiple Oromo ethnic factions, including the Oromo Liberation
Front, the United Oromo Peoples Liberation Front (or Tokuchuma),
the Al Ittihad, and the Islamic Oromo Liberation Front, to challenge
Ethiopian government. Fighting escalates in February 1999 and
again in May 1999 as Oromo factions gain support from Eritrea
channeled through the Aideed faction in Somalia. Rebellion diminishes
with the June 2000 cease-fire between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
|
|
Fiji
|
Regime change
|
12/87
|
12/87
|
Parliamentary elections in 1987 bring ethnic-Indian
party to power. Elected government is ousted by a military coup
led by Lt. Col. Sitiveni Rabuka on May 21, 1987.
|
|
Fiji
|
Regime change
|
12/06
|
12/06
|
The ethnic Fijian-dominated Qarase government
is ousted by a military coup led by Commodore Frank Bainimarama
on December 5, 2006. Bainimarama, an ethnic Fijian, claimed to
oppose the racially biased policies of the Qarase government and
its decision to offer clemency to those individuals behind the
2000 coup and subsequent attacks against the country's Indo-Fijian
population. The 2000 coup attempt had been put down by forces
loyal to Bainimarama.
|
|
France
|
Regime change
|
6/58
|
6/58
|
New constitution institutes the (Gaulist) Fifth
Republic, a very strong Presidential system that grants extraordinary
powers to the president over parliament.
|
|
The Gambia
|
Regime change
|
7/94
|
7/94
|
Longstanding multiparty system, dominated by
President Dawda, is overthrown in military coup. Military rule
reaffirmed with controversial elections of 1996.
|
|
Georgia
|
Complex
|
6/91
|
12/93
|
Abkhaz and South Ossetian regional governments
fight for independence with backing from Russian military and
political elements, effective autonomy secured in both regions
by 1993 (ETH 6 |