PITF

Political Instability Task Force

Internal Wars and Failures of Governance,
1955-2006

PITF Problem Set Codebook

Principal Investigators: Monty G. Marshall, Ted Robert Gurr, and Barbara Harff

Revision Date: January 2001

Table of Contents

  1. PITF Problem Set: Dataset and Spreadsheet
    1. Variables Listed
  2. Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars
    1. General Definitions and Distinctions
    2. Dating Beginning and Ending of Armed Conflict
    3. Annual Magnitude Scales for Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars
    4. Description of Revolutionary and Ethnic War Events
  3. Adverse Regime Changes
    1. Guidelines for Coding Adverse Regime Changes
    2. Adverse Regime Change Beginning and Ending Dates
    3. Annual Magnitude Scales for Adverse Regime Changes
    4. Description of Adverse Regime Changes
  4. Genocide and Politicide
    1. General Definitions and Distinctions
    2. Coding Guidelines
  5. Lists of Episodes
    1. Ethnic War
    2. Revolutionary War
    3. Adverse Regime Change
    4. Genocide and Politicide


I. PITF PROBLEM SET: DATASET AND SPREADSHEETS

The State Failure Problem Set dataset and spreadsheets were originally prepared in 1994 by researchers at the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) at the University of Maryland under the direction of Ted Robert Gurr and subject to the review of the State Failure Task Force. The Problem Set was subsequently reviewed, revised, and updated on an annual basis through 1999 under the direction of Ted Gurr and, beginning in 1999, Monty G. Marshall at CIDCM. In January 2001, a major review and revision of the Problem Set coding guidelines and dataset, under the direction of Monty G. Marshall, was concluded that substantially altered the case identifications and case parameters recorded in the Problem Set. The January 2001 revision of the State Failure Problem Set coding guidelines are described below. The event description and caselist of genocides and politicides have been done under the direction of Barbara Harff.

Four distinct types of state failure events are included in the dataset: Revolutionary War, Ethnic War, Adverse Regime Change, and Genocide or Politicide. The coding rules covering each type are defined below. The Problem Set data includes the following information on each case: country, month and year of onset, month and year of ending (unless ongoing as of December 31 of the current update year), type of case, and annual codes on magnitude variables. The basic structure of the data is the "case-year," that is, there is a separate case-entry for each additional year of a multi-year episode. Only the first annual record for each event contains a brief narrative description of the event.

Often, state failures are complex cases involving more than one distinct event type. In general, complex events are made up of two or more temporally- linked wars and crises. If events overlap or if five years or less separate the end of one event and the onset of the next, they have been combined (or "consolidated") for analytic purposes (i.e., the "consolidated" or "complex" eventis used as the dependent variable in statistical analyses). The specific types of events, and their dates if different from the inclusive dates of the complex event, are noted in the Table Listing event descriptions (146 total).

There are four versions of the Political Instability (State Failure) Problem Set data; each are downloadable from the PITF Problem Set page of this Web site in Microsoft Excel format. This format was chosen because it is readily importable to most spreadsheet and statistical software applications. The four versions are as follows:

  • PITF Ethnic Wars 2004.XLS (76 episodes/719 case-years)
  • PITF Revolutionary Wars 2004.XLS (64 episodes/472 case-years)
  • PITF Adverse Regimes Changes 2004.XLS (112 episodes/284 case-years)
  • PITF GenoPoliticides 2004.XLS (41 episodes/268 case-years)

Please note:
Some war events are coded as both a political and an ethnic war event simultaneously; these cases have characteristics of both event types. As it is not possible to disaggregate the coded magnitudes of combatants and supporters, fatalities, and area affected, event magnitudes are simply repeated for the duplicate records under both event types. This can result in a problem of double counting when events of different types are aggregated or compared.

The recent political restructuring that many former Socialist Bloc countries have undergone has created many new states and, thus, complicated data compilation. Be aware that data inconsistencies may be found, especially in regard to the former-Soviet states, as conflict processes transcend temporal alignments. For example, the USSR is coded through 1991 but many of its constituent republics begin coding in 1990, resulting in what appears to be double, or over-lapped, coding of processes in that region. Also, conflict processes in the newly constituted states often have their beginnings in the former alignment, so, beginning years listed (Begin-Yr) may have occurred prior to statehood.

I.1 Variables Listed

The common variables listed in each data version are as follows:

COUNTRY
Full alpha country name
SCODE
3-letter alpha country code
CCODE
3-number numeric Singer country code
YEAR
4-number numeric year
MOBEGIN
2-number numeric month denoting event beginning
YRBEGIN
4-number numeric year denoting event beginning
MOEND
2-number numeric month denoting event ending (99=ongoing)
YREND
4-number numeric year denoting event ending (9999=ongoing)
PTYPE
1-number numeric event type (1=ETH; 2=REV; 3=REG; 4=GEN)
DESC
Brief alpha text description identifying specific event (only included with first case-year in multi-year episodes)

Variables specific to the Ethnic and Revolutionary War episodes are as follows:

MAGFIGHT
Scaled number of rebel combatants or activists (range 0-4; 9=missing)
MAGFATAL
Scaled annual number of fatalities related to fighting (range 0-4; 9=missing)
MAGAREA
Scaled portion of country affected by fighting (range 0-4; 9=missing)
AVEMAG
Average of the three magnitude scores (range 0-4.0; 9=missing)

Variables specific to the Adverse Regime Change episodes are as follows:

MAGFAIL
Scaled failure of state authority (range 1-4; 9=missing)
MAGCOL
Scaled collapse of democratic institutions (range 1-4; 9=missing)
MAGVIOL
Scaled violence associated with regime transition (range 1-4; 9=missing)
MAGAVE
Average of the three magnitude scores (range 1-4.0; 9=missing)
POLITYX
Type of regime change

Variables specific to the Genocide/Politicide episodes are as follows:

DEATHMAG
Scaled annual number of deaths (range 0-5.0)


II. REVOLUTIONARY AND ETHNIC WARS

Definitions and coding instructions for the case selection and updates of revolutionary and ethnic wars for the State Failure Problem Set are summarized in the following sections. Cases and codings are based on information compiled from multiple sources; discrepancies in the historical records are scrutinized and reconciled by analysts to construct unitary estimates of factors that identify and characterize each distinct event. "Wars" are unique political events that are characterized by the concerted (or major) tactical and strategic use of organized violence in an attempt by political and/or military leaders to gain a favorable outcome in an ongoing, group conflict interaction process. "Revolutionary and ethnic wars" are both primarily internal, domestic, civil, intrastate, or "societal" wars, although they are often "internationalized" to some extent as one or more of the contending groups may receive substantial indirect, or direct, support from foreign governments or other groups.

"Societal wars" are distinguished from "normal conflict processes" by the use of organized, lethal violence; from "terrorist campaigns" by the magnitude, intensity, and nature of the use of violence; and from "intercommunal violence" by the active involvement of state authorities and the professed (or perceived) goal of the contending non-state group to change the established political structure or status quo. Societal wars, thus, can be identified as major armed conflicts between state authorities and mobilized oppositional groups and can be measured by the number of deaths that result directly from organized violence. Individual reports and general estimates of deaths caused by violent conflicts often vary widely and, so, wars can not be measured exactly but only estimated. As organized violence is the defining quality of societal wars, war events are defined by the evidentiary use of systematic violence, that is, by evidence of substantial deaths that result from the use of violence by contending authorities (see "event identification thresholds" explained below). Political conflict interactions may often be explained as having a long history of animosity punctuated by sporadic violence; no attempt is made to identify the "historical roots" of conflict or group hostility. War events are defined as beginning with the appearance of substantial armed conflict and ending with the disappearance of substantial armed conflict.

II.1 General Definitions and Distinctions

Revolutionary wars are episodes of violent conflict between governments and politically organized groups (political challengers) that seek to overthrow the central government, to replace its leaders, or to seize power in one region. Conflicts must include substantial use of violence by one or both parties to qualify as "wars."

"Politically organized groups" may include revolutionary and reform movements, political parties, student and labor organizations, and elements of the armed forces and the regime itself. If the challenging group represents a national, ethnic, or other communal minority, the conflict is analyzed as an ethnic war, below.

From the 1950s through the late 1980s most revolutionary wars were fought by guerrilla armies organized by clandestine political movements. Some, usually smaller in scale, relied wholly or in part on campaigns of terrorism. A few, like the Iranian revolution of 1979, were mass movements that organized campaigns of demonstrations. The violence and fatalities in revolutionary conflicts of this type were mainly the result of government repression. The student revolutionary movement in China that was suppressed in the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 is another example. Most mass movements that precipitated the fall of East European communist governments in 1989-90 do not qualify as revolutionary wars because neither party used substantial violence.

Event Identification Thresholds: There are the two minimum thresholds for including an armed conflict in the state failure problem set: a mobilization threshold, wherein each party must mobilize 1000 or more people (armed agents, demonstrators, troops), and a conflict intensity threshold, whereby there must be at least 1000 direct conflict-related deaths over the full course of the armed conflict and at least one year when the annual conflict-related death toll exceeds 100 fatalities. The fatalities may result from armed conflict, terrorism, rioting, or government repression. The "full course" of the armed conflict is defined as a continual episode of armed conflict between agents of the state and agents of the opposition group during which there is no period greater than three years when annual conflict-related fatalities are fewer than 100 in each year, see section II.2 below ("Dating Beginning and Ending of Conflict").

Note that if a government perpetrates mass murder against unarmed civilians who are suspected of supporting a revolutionary movement, then two analytically distinct events may be coded: a revolutionary war and a genocide or politicide (mass murders of political opponents by agents of the state are usually considered politicides).

Ethnic wars are episodes of violent conflict between governments and national, ethnic, religious, or other communal minorities (ethnic challengers) in which the challengers seek major changes in their status. Most ethnic wars since 1955 have been guerrilla or civil wars in which the challengers have sought independence or regional autonomy. A few, like the events in South Africa's black townships in 1976-77, involve large-scale demonstrations and riots aimed at sweeping political reform that were violently suppressed by police and military. Rioting and warfare between rival communal groups is not coded as ethnic warfare unless it involves conflict over political power or government policy.

As with revolutionary wars, there are the two minimum thresholds for including an ethnic war event in the state failure problem set: a mobilization threshold, wherein each party must mobilize 1000 or more people (armed agents, demonstrators, troops), and a conflict intensity threshold, whereby there must be at least 1000 direct conflict-related deaths over the full course of the armed conflict and at least one year when the annual conflict-related death toll exceeds 100 fatalities. The fatalities may result from armed conflict, terrorism, rioting, or government repression. The "full course" of the armed conflict is defined as a continual episode of armed conflict between agents of the state and agents of the opposition group during which there is no period greater than three years when annual conflict-related fatalities are fewer than 100 in each year, see section II.2 below ("Dating Beginning and Ending of Conflict").

Note that, as with revolutionary wars, if a government perpetrates political mass murder against unarmed members of a rebellious communal group, then two analytically-distinct events may be coded: an ethnic war and a genocide or politicide (the mass murder of members of a distinct ethnic group by agents of the state are usually considered genocide).

II.2 Dating Beginning and Ending of Armed Conflict

When Open Armed Conflict Began (MOBEGIN and YRBEGIN): Record the month and year in which the militant or violent phase of the conflict began. Conflict interactions, including sporadic violent incidents, involving opposition group agents and state authorities may take place for many months or several years prior to the escalation of the conflict to serious, organized violence. "Open armed conflict" is generally recognized as beginning when more than 100 conflict-related fatalities are recorded in a single year. Often, an "open armed conflict" phase in a social conflict interaction will be defined by an overt, symbolic or decisive action that is readily identified and dated. Many times, the intensity of violence used in a conflict interaction increases slowly or erratically over time. If the month cannot be determined from sources, estimate the quarter--winter, spring, summer, fall--in which open conflict began and convert these codings to months: January for winter, April for spring, July for summer, October for fall.

Ordinarily, open armed conflict results from a conscious, strategic policy on the part of one or both conflict groups; in this case, date armed conflicts from the month in which the first attacks or clashes occur. For example, the Cuban revolution is dated from the month in which Castro and his followers landed in Cuba. The uprisings that began in 1976 in black townships in South Africa are dated from the month in which the first serious clashes occurred between security forces and demonstrators.

When Open Armed Conflict Ended (MOEND and YREND): Record the last month and year of open armed conflict. If there is a decisive conclusion, such as seizure of power or signing of a peace agreement that ends almost all fighting, record the month and year of the concluding event and use the "Description" space to indicate the nature of that event. Many times, the intensity of open armed conflict falls below the minimum intensity threshold of 100 conflict-related deaths per year prior to the negotiation of a formal peace settlement. In this case, the open armed conflict phase of the conflict interaction is recorded as having ended in the year when the intensity finally falls and remains below the minimum violence threshold for a period of three continuous years. Use the "open armed conflict ended" variables to record the month and year of the ending of open hostilities and use the "Description" space to explain the nature of the end of the violence and to denote the date of any subsequent, formal peace settlement.

It may be to a degree arbitrary to identify an ending date because many political and ethnic wars "sputter" or fade away rather than coming to a decisive conclusion. Use this operational rule: If a war falls below the minimum armed conflict intensity threshold of 100 deaths per year and stays below that threshold for three consecutive years, the open, armed conflict episode is considered to have "ended" in the year when the intensity fell below the minimum intensity threshold. If it does resume after the fourth year or in following years, it is coded as a separate event.

II.3 Annual Magnitude Scales for Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars

Precise information on fatalities on an annual basis (or even totals) is seldom available. And some episodes have effects that are disproportionate to their fatalities. Therefore three alternative scales for recording annual magnitudes are coded; these variables are described below. The annual magnitude score for each episode is the average of the three magnitude scores.

Each open armed conflict episode is coded on each of three magnitude scales separately for every calendar year during the "full course" of the ethnic or political war episode.

As a general rule, scales are coded "9" (for no data) if no information is available. But if contextual information provides the basis for an informed guess, for example that there were very few fatalities in a year, or that fighting was confined to a limited area of the country, the informed guess is translated into a coding judgement.

Magnitude scale 1 (MAGFIGHT): Number of rebel combatants or activists

Code this scale based on source estimates of the number of "armed supporters," "guerrillas," etc. of rebel and revolutionary movements. If the revolutionary challenge takes the form of a sequence of demonstrations and riots, use estimates of numbers of participants. If several rebel groups are operating in a country, estimate their total numbers. If estimates are available for some years but not others, use interpolations for intervening years. If ranges or alternative estimates are reported, use the mid-point. But if a marked decline in number of combatants occurs during the course of a year, use the higher number. For movements that rely mainly on terror tactics, such as Islamic militants in Algeria in the 1990s, use estimates of active members.

     0     =     less than 100 combatants or activists

     1     =     100 to 1000 combatants or activists

     2     =     1000 to 5,000 combatants or activists

     3     =     5,000 to 15,000 combatants or activists

     4     =     more than 15,000 combatants or activists

     9     =     no basis for judging

Magnitude scale 2 (MAGFATAL): Annual number of fatalities related to fighting

Code based on source estimates of annual fatalities directly attributed to fighting, armed attacks, and revolutionary protest including rebel fighters and leaders, demonstrators, regime forces and officials, civilians massacred in war zones or caught in cross-fire, and victims of terrorist attacks. Exclude, insofar as possible, victims of government campaigns of genocide and politicide, and victims of disease and starvation that result indirectly from open conflict.

     0     =     less than 100 fatalities

     1     =     100 to 1000 fatalities

     2     =     1000 to 5000 fatalities

     3     =     5,000 to 10,000 fatalities

     4     =     more than 10,000 fatalities

     9     =     no basis for judging

Magnitude scale 3 (MAGAREA): Portion of country affected by fighting

Code based on source materials about how much of the country is directly or indirectly affected by fighting or revolutionary protest in a given year. A province, region, or city is "directly affected" if fighting/terrorist attacks/revolutionary protest occur there at any time during the year. It is "indirectly affected" if the area has significant spillover effects from nearby fighting, for example refugees flows, curtailment of public services, martial law imposed. If open conflict expands or contracts during the course of the year, code according to its greatest extent.

     0     =     less than one-tenth of the country and no significant
                 cities are directly or indirectly affected

     1     =     one-tenth of the country (one province or state) and/or 
                 one or several provincial cities are directly or 
                 indirectly affected

     2     =     more than one-tenth and up to one quarter of the country 
                 (several provinces or states) and/or the capital city are 
                 directly or indirectly affected

     3     =     from one-quarter to one-half the country and/or most major
                 urban areas are directly or indirectly affected

     4     =     more than one-half the country is directly or indirectly
                 affected

     9     =     no basis for judging

Summary Annual Magnitude (AVEMAG): Average of the scores on the three alternative scales

Indicator based on the average of the three magnitude scores described above. All decimal averages (i.e., non-integers) are assigned decimal scores of ".5" (e.g., both 1.33 and 1.67 averages are assigned the score "1.5"). In cases where there is a missing magnitude score, the average is computed using the two scores listed. There are no cases where there is more than one missing magnitude score.

II.4 Descriptions of Revolutionary and Ethnic War Events

Each annual record contains variables that identify the case: COUNTRY provides the country name; CCODE (numeric) and SCODE (alpha) provide standard 3-character state identifier codes; and PTYPE is coded "1" to identify the record as an ethnic war and "2" to identify a political war event. In addition, the first annual record of each event contains a brief, narrative description of the event (DESC).


III. ADVERSE REGIME CHANGES

Definitions and coding instructions for the case selection and updates are summarized in the first section. Codings are based on information contained in the Polity IV data base. For further information on the Polity IV data resource, or to obtain an electronic copy of the Polity IV dataset, go to Internet address http://www.bsos.umd.edu/cidcm/inscr/polity).

III.1 Guidelines for Coding Adverse Regime Changes

Adverse Regime Changes are defined by the State Failure Task Force as major, adverse shifts in patterns of governance, including

  • major and abrupt shifts away from more open, electoral systems to more closed, authoritarian systems;
  • revolutionary changes in political elites and the mode of governance;
  • contested dissolution of federated states or secession of a substantial area of a state by extrajudicial means; and
  • complete or near-total collapse of central state authority and the ability to govern.

Abrupt transitions from more authoritarian rule to more open, institutionalized governance systems, defined by the State Failure Task Force as "democratic transitions," are not considered state failures in this sense and, thus, are not included.

Main Operational Criteria: The main criterion used to identify adverse regime changes is the record of a six or more point drop in the value of a state's POLITY index score over a period of three years or less. Most of the cases of adverse regime changes are identified in this way. Such changes may be accomplished by coup, fiat, or popular referendum. The POLITY index is a measure of the institutionalized regime authority characteristics of the central state; the index scale ranges from minus 10 (-10, fully institutionalized autocracy) to plus10 (+10, fully institutionalized democracy). Institutionalized regime authority characteristics are coded and POLITY indices are computed for each independent state in the world for each year since 1800 in the Polity IV dataset. In some cases, central regime authority collapses such that no coherent or consistent authority can be identified over a substantial period of time; these periods are considered "interregnums" in the Polity IV coding scheme and are assigned a "standardized authority code" of minus 77 (-77) in the Polity IV dataset. The "interregnum" code is the second criterion used to identify adverse regime changes.

Borderline Cases: Of course, the establishment of any definitional threshold is somewhat arbitrary. The six-point standard was identified through a thorough analysis of the Polity IV research and data. A six-point drop in a country's POLITY score indicates that a substantial change has occurred in the authority characteristics of the regime; a six-point magnitude of change is associated with qualitative changes in the openness of executive politics or general political competitiveness. The Polity IV codings are considered to be accurate and reliable to within two points on the POLITY scale. As such, all borderline cases (i.e., cases within two points of the threshold number) are reviewed individually for final determination. Borderline cases constitute about fifteen percent of cases examined.

Collapse of Central Authority: Not all cases of adverse regime changes can be identified by changes in POLITY scores in the Polity IV dataset. About one-third of cases identified as adverse regime changes involve a complete or near-complete collapse of central state authority and institutions and the ability of established political elites to govern effectively.

  • Revolutionary Changes. Central authority may collapse and be replaced by a new regime comprising quite different governing structures, political elites, and/or sources of authority or modes of rule. Such "revolutionary changes" constitute profound changes in the ethnic, religious, or ideological orientation of institutionalized regime authority, although quite often they adopt authoritarian practices quite similar to those used by the regime they replaced. Revolutionary changes are considered adverse regime changes due to the requisite collapse of central authority that precedes and enables the establishment of the new regime and not due to a subjective comparison of the relative merits of the prior and post regimes.
  • Contested State Dissolution. Central authority may collapse due to internal pressures to dissolve the unity of the state and reconstitute authority in separate territorially-redefined administrative units, that is, new independent states. If a state is territorially reconstituted by legal instruments designed by and under the authority of the previous state, then the change is considered to have been accomplished via central authority and not through a collapse of that authority. If the political elites of the previous regime actively contest or resist the dissolution of the unity of the state, then the change is considered to be predicated on the collapse of the central authority of the previous state. State dissolutions are considered adverse regime changes due to the requisite collapse of central authority that precedes and enables the establishment of the successor states and not due to a subjective comparison of the relative merits of the prior and post change situations.
  • Collapse of Central Authority. Central authority may collapse, in whole or in large part, due to some fatal combination of internal pressures, challenges, corruption, poverty, leadership failure, elite or capital flight, external influences, or other dynamics that erode or undermine institutions and authority structures. In some extreme cases, there are no alternative elites or authority structures that can or will replace the failed governance system and an extended period of chaos or anarchy results. While it is often the case that a central regime will be unable to extend their full authority to cover the entire territory under their jurisdiction, when a regime lacks the strength of authority to effectively govern at least half its sovereign territory (that is, provide essential services and security), it is considered to be a failed state and, thus, an adverse regime change by the State Failure Task Force. It is considered such regardless of the nature of the regime that eventually reestablishes authority over the territory and is considered so until such authority is reestablished.
III.2 Adverse Regime Change Beginning and Ending Dates

Each annual record of a distinct adverse regime change event contains one variable (YEAR) that records the year of the annual record and four variables that code the beginning month (MOBEGIN) and year (YRBEGIN) and ending month (MOEND) and year (YREND) of the adverse regime change. The beginning and ending dates will be identical in all the annual records for a multi-year event. In many cases, the beginning and ending dates are the same; this most often occurs in cases involving a sudden coup. Some cases cover a decade or more; this occurs most often in cases involving a collapse of central state authority.

III.3 Annual Magnitude Scales for Adverse Regime Changes

The State Failure Problem Set coding scheme makes use of the following three variables, each of which taps a different aspect of adverse regime change or collapse. Each scale is coded for each calendar year in which the political crisis is unresolved. The values assigned on the three variables are combined to provide a fourth variable: a general "magnitude of change" score for each year of an ongoing political crisis.

Magnitude scale 1 (MAGFAIL): Failure of State Authority

This scale refers to situations in which the institutions of the central state are so weakened that they can no longer maintain authority or political order in significant parts of the country. Evidence includes shut-downs of routine government services, failure of security forces and administrators to carry out any government directives, and anarchic conditions in large parts of the country, with rival militias, warlords, or local or regional authorities attempting to establish autonomous zones of government. Scores on this variable often will change from year to year during a political crisis, as the balances of power and authority shift between the central government and its challengers.

     1     =     adverse regime change (defined above) with no significant 
		           weakening of state institutions or persistent collapse
			       of public order

     2     =     failure of state authority in a limited part of the country,
			       e.g., secession or rebel control of, or anarchic conditions
			       in, one or several regions that do not include the core
			       area of the country or its capital

     3     =     failure of state authority in a substantial part of the 
                 country, or in the capital and its environs

     4     =     complete collapse or near-total failure of state authority

     9     =     no basis for judging

Magnitude scale 2 (MAGCOL): Collapse of Democratic Institutions

This scale is used to characterize situations in which democratic or quasi-democratic institutions are weakened or replaced, through the use or threat of force, by autocratic political institutions. A "democratic" regime is one whose POLITY score is greater than +5, a "quasi-democratic regime" is one with a POLITY score less than +6 and greater than zero (0), an "autocratic" polity has a POLITY score less than +1 (i.e., zero to minus ten). The coding on the Magnitude 2 scale usually remains the same during a multi-year regime crisis. In some instances, though, there are codable shifts as a result of abortive efforts to establish a new regime.

     1     =     abrupt or disruptive transitions within autocratic 
                 political systems, i.e. from one set of authoritarian 
                 leaders to another or one type of autocracy to another

     2     =     democratic or quasi-democratic institutions continue to 
                 exist but in circumstances of violent challenge and 
                 weakening of central authority

     3     =     a quasi-democratic polity is forcefully replaced (by 
                 violence or threat of violence) by an autocratic political 
                 system

     4     =     a fully democratic polity is forcefully replaced (by 
                 violence or threat of violence) by an autocratic political 
                 system

     9     =     no basis for judging

Magnitude scale 3 (MAGVIOL): Violence Associated with Adverse Regime Changes

This scale records the extent to which the contenders for state power during an abrupt transition use armed violence against the state. The coding on this scale will often change during a multi-year regime crisis.

     1     =     adverse regime change, no significant armed violence

     2     =     armed violence occurs mainly in outlying regions

     3     =     armed violence is limited mainly to the capital and a few 
                 other locales, as in the case of violent coups

     4     =     armed violence is widespread, affecting the capital and a 
                 number of other regions

     9     =     no basis for judging

Summary Annual Magnitude (MAGAVE): Average of the scores on the three scales

Indicator based on the average of the three magnitude scores described above. All decimal averages (i.e., non-integers) are assigned decimal scores of ".5" (e.g., both 1.33 and 1.67 averages are assigned the score "1.5"). In cases where there is a missing magnitude score, the average is computed using the two scores listed. There are no cases where there is more than one missing magnitude score.

I.4 Descriptions of Adverse Regime Changes

Each annual record contains variables that identify the case: COUNTRY provides the country name; CCODE (numeric) and SCODE (alpha) provide standard 3-character state identifier codes; and PTYPE is coded "3" to identify the record as an adverse regime change event. In addition, the first annual record of each adverse regime change case contains a brief, narrative description of the event (DESC) and an indicator (POLITYX) of the nature of the regime change. POLITYX may be a number from minus twenty (-20) to minus five (-5) to indicate the degree of change in the regime's POLITY value over the course of the adverse regime change, or it may be an alpha code to indicate the nature of a case defined by a collapse of central authority (REV-revolutionary change; DIS-contested state dissolution; or SF-failed state).


IV. GENOCIDE AND POLITICIDE

The first section summaries the general definitions and distinctions used for identifying and coding genocide and politicide events. The guidelines were originally formulated by Barbara Harff.

IV.1 General Definitions and Distinctions

Genocide and politicide events involve the promotion, execution, and/or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents or in the case of civil war, either of the contending authorities that result in the deaths of a substantial portion of a communal group or politicized non communal group. In genocides the victimized groups are defined primarily in terms of their communal (ethnolinguistic, religious) characteristics. In politicides, by contrast, groups are defined primarily in terms of their political opposition to the regime and dominant groups.

Genocide and politicide are distinguished from state repression and terror. In cases of state terror authorities arrest, persecute or execute a few members of a group in ways designed to terrorize the majority of the group into passivity or acquiesence. In the case of genocide and politicide authorities physically exterminate enough (not necessarily all) members of a target group so that it can no longer pose any conceivable threat to their rule or interests.

Operational Criteria:

(1) Authorities' complicity in mass murder must be established. Any persistent, coherent pattern of action by the state and its agents, or by a dominant social group, that brings about the destruction of a people's existence, in whole or in part, within the effective territorial control of a ruling authority is prima facie evidence of that state, or other, authority's responsibility. In situations of civil war (i.e., contested territorial control) either of the contending authorities may be deemed responsible for carrying out, or allowing, such actions.

(2) The physical destruction of a people requires time to accomplish: it implies a persistent, coherent pattern of action. Thus, only sustained episodes that last six months or more are included in the final dataset. This six month requirement is to a degree arbitrary. At the other end of the time spectrum are episodic attacks on a group that recur periodically, such as Iraqi government attacks on Kurds from 1960 to 1975. Annual codings are especially important for these kinds of episodes to permit tracking of peaks and lulls.

(3) The victims to be counted are unarmed civilians, not combatants. It rarely is possible to distinguish precisely between the two categories in the source materials. Certain kinds of tactics nonetheless are indicative of authorities' systematic targetting of noncombatants: massacres, unrestrained bombing and shelling of civilian inhabited areas, declaration of free fire zones, starvation by prolonged interdiction of food supplies, forced expulsion ("ethnic cleansing") accompanied by extreme privation and killings, etc.

(4) In principle, numbers provided in "body counts" do not enter the definition of what constitutes an episode. A "few hundred" killed constitutes as much a genocide or politicide as the deaths of thousands if the victim group is small in number to begin with.

Note: Definitions and operational guidelines are adapted from Barbara Harff and T. R. Gurr, "Victims of the State: Genocides, Politicides, and Group Repression from 1945 to 1995," pp. 33 58 in Albert J. Jongman (ed.), Contemporary Genocides: Causes, Cases, Consequences (Leiden: University of Leiden, PIOOM Interdisciplinary Research Program on Root Causes of Human Rights Violations, 1996).

IV.2 Coding Guidelines for Genocides and Politicides

When Episode Begins: Records the month in which systematic killings are reported to have started. If the month could not be determined reliably from sources, the quarter--winter, spring, summer, fall--in which the killings began is estimated and converted to months: January for winter, April for spring, July for summer, October for fall.

When Episode Ends: The end of systematic killing often is difficult to determine. The overthrow of a genocidal regime usually is decisive, e.g. the Vietnamese invasion of Kampuchea. In other instances the end can be dated from the occurrence of the last serious atrocities, the end of a military campaign that targets civilian areas, or simply the absence of any further reports (e.g., from news sources, US State Department, or Amnesty International) of deliberate killings. The ending month is coded only if it can be inferred from the above kinds of information.

Several alternative magnitude scales were tried but could not be coded reliably because of inadequate data. Cumulative and annual estimates of civilian deaths were identified from multiple sources and used to code the following scale. In a few cases no annual variations in intensity of killing could be assessed, therefore total estimated deaths were pro-rated over the entire period. Substantially more research could be done on this issue, with some improvement in the reliability of the codings.

Magnitude scale (DEATHMAG): Annual number of deaths
     0     =     less than 300

     0.5   =     300 - 1000

     1.0   =     1000 - 2000

     1.5   =     2000 - 4000

     2.0   =     4000 - 8000

     2.5   =     8000 - 16,000

     3.0   =     16,000 - 32,000

     3.5   =     32,000 - 64,000

     4.0   =     64,000 - 128,000

     4.5   =     128,000 - 256,000

     5.0   =     256,000 +

Description of the Event: Each initial annual record includes a brief description of the Genocide or Politicide event.



Episodes of Political Instability/State Failure

Listed Alphabetically by Type with Years Inclusive
Note: An "X" indicates that the episode was ongoing as of early 2006; ongoing cases
are highlighted in red.

An asterisk (*) denotes cases that are listed as both Ethnic and Revolutionary Wars.

Ethnic Wars (80 cases; 16 ongoing)
Afghanistan         1992-X*
Algeria             1962-62*
Angola              1975-02*
Azerbaijan          1988-97
Bangladesh          1976-91
Bosnia              1992-95
Burundi             1972-72
Burundi             1988-05
Cen. African Rep.   2005-X
Chad 1965-94 Chad 2005-X
China 1956-59 China 1988-98 Dem. Rep. Congo 1960-65 Dem. Rep. Congo 1977-78 Dem. Rep. Congo 1992-X Croatia 1991-95 Cyprus 1963-64 Cyprus 1974-74 Ethiopia 1961-91 Ethiopia 1963-64 Ethiopia 1977-78 Ethiopia 1999-00 Georgia 1991-93 Guatemala 1975-94 India 1956-58 India 1967-71 India 1983-93 India 1990-X Indonesia 1967-71 Indonesia 1975-91 Indonesia 1981-84 Indonesia 1997-99 Indonesia 1998-05 Iran 1979-85 Iraq 1961-70 Iraq 1974-75 Iraq 1980-88 Iraq 1991-98 Iraq 2003-x
Israel              1987-X
Ivory Coast         2002-05*
Kenya               1964-66
Kenya               1991-93
Laos                1961-79
Lebanon             1975-91
Mali                1990-95
Moldovia            1992-92
Morocco             1975-89
Myanmar             1961-X
Nicaragua           1981-84
Nigeria             1966-70
Pakistan            1971-71
Pakistan            1973-77
Pakistan            1983-98
Pakistan            2004-X
Papua New Guinea 1989-97 Philippines 1972-X Russia 1994-96 Russia 1999-06 Rwanda 1963-66 Rwanda 1990-98 Rwanda 2001-01
Senegal 1992-99 Somalia 1988-X South Africa 1987-96 Sri Lanka 1983-X Sudan 1956-72 Sudan 1983-02 Sudan 2003-X Thailand 2004-X Turkey 1984-00 Turkey 2004-X
Uganda 1966-66 Uganda 1980-X United Kingdom 1971-82 United States 1965-68 Yugoslavia 1991-92 Yugoslavia 1998-99 Zimbabwe 1981-87
Revolutionary Wars (65 cases; 4 ongoing)
Afghanistan         1978-92
Afghanistan         1992-X*
Albania             1997-97
Algeria             1962-62*
Algeria             1991-04
Angola              1975-02*
Cambodia            1970-75
Cambodia            1979-91
China               1966-69
China               1989-89
Colombia            1948-60
Colombia            1984-X
Congo-Brazzaville   1997-99
Cuba                1956-59
Dem. Rep. Congo     1960-65
Dem. Rep. Congo     1996-03
Dominican Republic  1965-65
Egypt               1992-99
El Salvador         1979-92
Ethiopia            1975-91
Georgia             1992-93
Guatemala           1966-96
Guinea              2000-01
Guinea-Bissau       1998-99
Hungary             1956-56
India 2001-X Indonesia 1949-61 Indonesia 1958-61 Indonesia 1998-99 Iran 1977-79 Iran 1981-83 Iraq 1959-59 Ivory Coast 2002-05*
Jordan              1970-71
Laos                1960-62
Laos                1963-79
Lebanon             1958-58
Lesotho             1998-98
Liberia             1985-85
Liberia             1989-93
Liberia             2000-03
Mozambique          1976-92
Myanmar             1988-89
Nepal               1996-06
Nicaragua           1978-79
Nicaragua           1981-88
Nigeria             1980-85
Oman                1970-76
Peru                1982-97
Philippines         1972-96
Romania             1989-89
Sierra Leone        1991-01
Somalia             1988-94
South Africa        1984-90
Sri Lanka           1987-89
Tajikistan          1992-98
Thailand            1965-83
Uganda              1983-85
Vietnam, South      1958-65
Yemen, North        1962-70
Yemen, South        1986-86
Yemen               1994-94
Yemen               2004-X
Zambia              1964-64
Zimbabwe            1972-79
Adverse Regime Changes (115 cases; 2 ongoing)
Afghanistan         1978-79
Afghanistan         1992-96
Afghanistan         2001-02
Albania             1996-96
Algeria             1992-92
Angola              1992-97
Argentina           1966-66
Argentina           1976-76
Armenia             1995-96
Azerbaijan          1993-95
Bangladesh          1974-75
Belarus             1995-96
Benin               1963-65
Benin               1972-72
Bosnia              1992-95
Brazil              1961-65
Burkina-Faso        1980-80
Burundi             1963-66
Burundi             1993-96
Cambodia            1975-76
Cambodia            1997-97
Central Afr. Rep.   2003-03
Chad                1979-84
Chile               1973-73
Comoros             1976-76
Comoros             1995-96
Comoros             1999-99
Congo-Brazzaville   1963-63
Congo-Brazzaville   1997-97
Cuba                1952-55
Cuba                1959-61
Cyprus              1963-68
Cyprus              1974-74
Czechoslovakia      1968-69
Dem. Rep. Congo     1960-65
Dem. Rep. Congo     1992-03
Dominican Republic  1963-66
Ecuador             1970-72
El Salvador         1977-77
Equatorial Guinea   1969-69
Ethiopia            1974-75
Ethiopia            1991-93
Fiji                1987-87
Fiji 2006-06 France 1958-58 Gambia 1994-94 Ghana 1972-72 Ghana 1981-81 Greece 1967-67 Guinea-Bissau 1998-99 Guinea-Bissau 2003-03 Guyana 1978-80 Haiti 1991-91 Haiti 1999-00 Hungary 1956-57 Indonesia 1957-59 Iran 1953-55 Iran 1979-82 Iran 2004-04
Iraq                2003-03
Ivory Coast         2002-x
Jordan              1957-57
Kenya               1969-69
Korea, South        1961-61
Korea, South        1972-72
Laos                1960-75
Lebanon             1975-90
Lesotho             1970-70
Lesotho             1998-99
Liberia             1990-96
Malaysia            1969-69
Morocco             1965-65
Myanmar             1962-62
Nepal               1960-60
Nepal               2002-02
Nicaragua           1979-81
Niger               1996-96
Nigeria             1964-66
Nigeria             1984-84
Pakistan            1958-58
Pakistan            1971-71
Pakistan            1977-77
Pakistan            1999-99
Panama              1968-68
Peru 1962-62 Peru 1968-68 Peru 1992-92 Philippines 1969-72 Rwanda 1994-94 Senegal 1962-63 Sierra Leone 1967-67 Sierra Leone 1971-71 Sierra Leone 1997-02 Singapore 1963-65 Solomon Islands 2000-03 Somalia 1969-69 Somalia 1991-X Sudan 1958-58 Sudan 1969-71 Sudan 1989-89 Swaziland 1973-73 Syria 1961-66 Thailand 1971-71 Thailand 1976-76
Thailand 2006-06 Turkey 1971-71 Turkey 1980-80 Uganda 1966-69 Uganda 1985-86 Uruguay 1972-73 USSR 1991-91 Yugoslavia 1991-91 Zambia 1968-72 Zambia 1996-96 Zimbabwe 1987-87
Genocide/Politicides (41 cases; 1 ongoing)
Afghanistan         1978-92
Algeria             1962-62
Angola              1975-94
Angola              1998-02
Argentina           1976-80
Bosnia              1992-95
Burundi             1965-73
Burundi             1988-88
Burundi             1993-93
Cambodia            1975-79
Chile               1973-76
China               1959-59
China               1966-75
Dem. Rep. Congo     1964-65
Dem. Rep. Congo     1977-79
El Salvador         1980-89
Equatorial Guinea   1969-79
Ethiopia            1976-79
Guatemala           1978-90
Indonesia           1965-66
Indonesia           1975-92
Iran                1981-92
Iraq                1963-75
Iraq                1988-91
Myanmar             1978-78
Nigeria             1967-70
Pakistan            1971-71
Pakistan            1973-77
Philippines         1972-76
Rwanda              1963-64
Rwanda              1994-94
Somalia             1988-91
Sri Lanka           1989-90
Sudan               1956-72
Sudan               1983-02
Sudan               2003-X
Syria               1981-82
Uganda              1971-79
Uganda              1980-86
Vietnam-South       1965-75
Yugoslavia          1998-99
Back to the Top

Political Instability Task Force



Center for Global Policy

Copyright 2007